Since the beginning of awards season, yours truly has been tracking the rankings of all the films, performances and pertinent categories. My estimates have been based on hunches, the subsequent and nonstop feedback from critics and guilds, and, most importantly, the statistics. The numbers don't lie, as they say, and that's as true of movie awards as it is of hockey playoffs. And if you want to doubt the veracity of numbers, try joining the gambling movie freaks in Vegas on Oscar night. You won't be able to place a bet there, but the oddsmakers are already making their picks online.